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2013 vehicle TIV forecast revised up 6.3% [17-07-2013]  
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Frost & Sullivan is revising its 2013 total industry volume (TIV) forecast up by 6.3% to 638,000 units from 600,000 units estimated previously, as a result of positive consumer sentiment, enthusiastic response to key new model launches and lowered expectation of any significant price reduction from policy initiatives.

Frost & Sullivan Asia-Pacific partner and head of automotive and transportation practice, Kavan Mukhtyar (pic), said the revised TIV forecast was also because the impact of Malaysia’s electoral uncertainty during the run-up to the 2013 general election was not as high as expected.

“Sales volume for the month of July is expected to recover, as consumers purchase new vehicles due to the upcoming Hari Raya festive season. The recent efforts by Bank Negara to reduce household debt may not have an immediate adverse impact, as automotive loan approvals have already been tightened since last year,” he said in a statement yesterday.

He added that the launch of the new Proton Saga SV (Super Value) in mid-June would also continue to support growth for the month of July. However, August could witness a moderate performance, as sales are expected to decline due to the long Hari Raya holidays.

Kavan also said that carmakers were expected to launch key new models in the third quarter of this year, which could prop up vehicle sales.

“They include the new Toyota Vios, Proton P3-22A (Prevé hatchback) and Nissan Almera hatchback,” he said, adding that September sales could be slower due to the anticipation of the budget announcement in October.

TIV slipped for a second consecutive month in May, sliding by 8,667 units or 15% from a year ago.

Kavan said vehicle sales in the first half of 2013 were expected to grow 4% year-on-year to reach 314,000 units, compared with 301,269 units a year ago.

He expects vehicle sales to pick up in the fourth quarter of 2013, mainly due to the announcement of the budget and the start of the year-end festive season, which traditionally sees plenty of sales promotions offered by carmakers.

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